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Will Mars Remain an Impossible Dream?

Joe Riley

Joe Riley

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AI Response:

The "Mirage" Argument:
The phrase "chasing a mirage" in the context of a Mars mission likely refers to the potentially unattainable goals and overwhelming challenges involved. While the allure of Mars is undeniable, the immense technical, financial, and ethical hurdles raise questions about whether the dream of human settlement can be realized or if it remains a distant, perhaps illusory, objective."

"However, it's important to remember that progress in space exploration is often incremental, and the scientific knowledge and technological advancements gained from Mars missions, even if permanent colonization isn't immediately achieved, can still offer substantial benefits.
Ultimately, the question of whether Mars colonization is a "mirage" remains open for debate."
 
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Distant? Sure, very much so. Illusory? I think your AI may be deranged. :ROFLMAO:

The more we find though, though more plausible things like colonization appear. Many, many problems remain (ignoring actually getting there) but lack of free water doesn't seem to be one any more, for example.

I'm not sure it should be our "next stop" though, at least not for exploitation or even colonization. There is still the Moon, still the asteroids in Earth's L4 and L5 points, and perhaps even some minor moons in regular Earth orbits beyond the Moon.
 

Mars is Hard. Here's Why. Listen Now​

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Most Americans do not wish to go to Mars.

AI Overview
Public opinion on sending humans to Mars is mixed. While polls indicate majority support for sending astronauts to Mars, it's not considered a top priority for NASA compared to things like monitoring asteroids.


Here's a breakdown of public opinion:
  • Support for Missions: Majorities of Americans favor sending astronauts to Mars. However, few Americans believe it should be NASA's top priority, preferring other objectives like monitoring Earth's climate and hazardous objects.
  • Colonization Hesitancy: Most Americans (62%) are not interested in living on Mars long-term. Skepticism about the feasibility and desirability of colonizing Mars is common, often influenced by concerns about technological challenges and a perceived unfavorable risk-benefit ratio.
  • Age and Gender Differences: Younger Americans tend to be more optimistic about the possibility of humans landing on Mars during their lifetime. Men are also more likely than women to support Mars expeditions.
  • Cost Concerns: The significant cost of Mars missions, with estimates reaching half a trillion dollars for the first human mission, raises concerns for some Americans. Some wonder if the money could be better spent addressing issues on Earth.
  • Perceived Likelihood: While more Americans are becoming optimistic about NASA reaching its 2040 goal of sending people to Mars, the majority do not believe permanent settlements in space will be built within the next 50 years.
 
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The Siren Calling of a Mars Mission

AI Overview

"The phrase "The Siren Calling of a Mars Mission" is a evocative way to describe the strong appeal and pull of exploring and potentially settling on Mars. Like the mythical Sirens who lured sailors with their enchanting songs, the idea of a Mars mission captivates many with its promise of discovery, pushing the boundaries of human achievement, and potential future home for humanity."

The allure of Mars exploration:

  • Scientific Discovery: Mars offers the potential to answer fundamental questions about the universe and our place in it, including whether life has ever existed beyond Earth.
  • Technological Advancement: The challenges of Mars missions push the development of advanced technologies that can benefit life on Earth, from new materials to innovative life support systems..
  • Inspiration: The prospect of exploring another planet fuels human curiosity and inspires future generations to pursue science and innovation.
Challenges and Risks:
"Despite the alluring call of Mars, it's important to acknowledge the significant challenges and risks associated with human missions to the Red Planet."
  • Technical difficulties: Developing reliable and efficient spacecraft, life support systems, radiation shielding, and landing technologies remains a major hurdle.
  • Physiological effects: Extended exposure to radiation and the low gravity environment of Mars pose significant health risks to astronauts.
  • Psychological factors: Isolation, confinement, and the prolonged duration of the journey can have detrimental effects on crew members' mental health.
  • Financial cost: Mars missions are incredibly expensive, requiring significant investment in research, development, and infrastructure.
  • Safety and reliability: The vast distance to Mars means that no rescue or support missions are possible once the journey is underway, making extreme reliability of systems essential.
A complex endeavor:

"Ultimately, a Mars mission is a complex endeavor, requiring careful consideration of both the potential rewards and the significant challenges. The "siren calling" of Mars is powerful, but it's important to approach this ambition with a realistic understanding of the risks involved."
 
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I think it'll eventually happen, given enough time and intermediate steps. Or we may fall back into barbarism before that.

But once we get there we may just find that we have been there before!

I'm not entirely convinced that this is the first civilization of mankind.
 
Picture of Phobos, the larger of the 2 moons of Mars, taken from Mars by Curiosity at night. Phobos is very close to Mars but much smaller than Earth's moon.

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Image of Phobos, as captured by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter in 2008

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Meet Mars’s Moons​

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Deimos is also slowly drifting away from Mars. Eventually, Deimos will break free of Mars’s gravity and escape into a new orbit around the Sun.
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Phobos, on the other hand, is getting gradually closer to Mars. At some point, tens of millions of years from now, it’s expected to crash into the planet’s surface.
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Empty Promises On NASA’s Road to Mars (2015)​

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"These days you can’t seem to go anywhere in the Internet without seeing #JourneyToMars slapped on Tweets about, well, everything that NASA does – regardless of how it is actually related to sending humans to Mars.
Its in press release titles, on posters, YouTube videos. NASA is all about the “Journey To Mars” these days and its marketing campaign reflects a concerted effort to make you truly believe that this is happening – except … it is not."
What is the point I am trying to make? Simple: NASA’s #JourneyToMars “plan” is a hoax. There is no money for it. Not even close. There is no discernible “plan”- just cartoons and talking points. NASA is hoping that pretty pictures, an implied (but imaginary) strategy, and non-stop PR will keep the notion of going to Mars alive long enough so that the next Administration will buy into it – and the go-nowhere while pretending to go some where circus gets another reprieve.

"It has worked before. NASA has been working on plans to send humans to Mars since the 1960s. We have been 20 years away from sending humans to Mars for half a century." (READ MORE)
 
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Why we’re not going to Mars (2017)​

The primary barrier to building a colony on Mars is almost too obvious to notice, but it’s there in plain sight; it is a dead planet. And while the media talk a lot about how and when we might get to Mars, the question of why almost never comes up. Let’s put on our ecologist hats and look at it critically:

1. Zero carrying capacity for human life

In fact, one could argue that the carrying capacity on Mars is actually negative thanks to the cosmic radiation, extreme cold and low gravity (only 38% of Earth gravity!). Any settlers would simply struggle to stay alive in conditions vastly different than those we evolved in. Fighting the loss of bone density, novel cancers, immune dysfunction, and a range of psychological problems would be an inescapable and ultimately losing battle.

2. The fragility of artificial ecological systems

The biosphere we are embedded within on Earth is the supreme life support system, providing us with everything we need to survive. Mars doesn’t possess the amazingly complex feedback loops which regulate and maintain living communities. All attempts thus far to create viable closed ecological systems, such as the Biosphere experiments of the 1990s, have failed dramatically. The lesson to take from this is that any ‘designed’ ecological system, with technology substituting for natural processes (a likely prerequisite for a Mars settlement), is an inherently unstable thing. Even if a closed agricultural system could be established, peak equatorial solar irradiance on Mars is only a little over half what the surface of the Earth receives, which would make growing food a very challenging task.

3. The costs of a foothold on a barren world

On Earth, we are fortunate to be endowed with abundant low-entropy resources, the fundamental enabler of life, which life also creates by concentrating matter and energy into useful forms. With no forests or oceans, nearly all necessary materials would need to be transported to Mars. Mineral ore mining, the only extraction activity which could conceivably be carried out in situ, would face immense operational difficulties. Self-sufficient production of the enormous array of materials and components necessary to sustain a colony would require a significant industrial base and workforce, which would then in turn need to be supported. Taken together, this would be a very marginal prospect, relegating any Mars settlement project to a perpetual dependence on imports. The only exports the new Martians could manage would likely be various scientific data and footage of their daily lives for the entertainment of us Earthlings – not exactly a strong proposition for a long-term colony facing costs several orders of magnitude higher than any other in human history. (READ MORE)
 
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We could send a Mars-dozer to build a few roads. Map the place out thoroughly. Add it to Google Streetview. They already have a satellite orbiting Mars. Why couldn't they send one to work like Google Earth? Or do they have one already?

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The Expanse season 1 episode 4.

Lieutenant Lopez, Mars Congressional Republic Navy:​
May I ask you a question? Do you miss Earth?​
​
James Holden, fmr. United Nations Navy, now living in The Belt, now captive of the MCRN:​
If I did, I'd go back.​

Lopez:​
My great-uncle emigrated from Earth. He missed it terribly. He used to tell me stories when I was a little boy about these endless blue skies, free air everywhere. Open water all the way to the horizon. He told me that someday we would make Mars just like that.​

When you spend your whole life living under a dome, even the idea of an ocean seems impossible to imagine.​

I could never understand your people. Why, when the universe has bestowed so much upon you, you seem to care so little for it.​

Holden:​
Wrecking things is what Earthers do best. Martians, too, by the look of your ship.​
​
Lopez:​
We are nothing like you.​
​
The only things Earthers care about is government handouts. Free food, free water, free drugs so that you can forget the aimless lives you lead. You're short-sighted and selfish, and it will destroy you.​
​
Bridge, over public address:​
Incoming torpedoes in PDC range, one minute.​
​
Lopez:​
Earth is over, Mr. Holden. My only hope is that we can bring Mars to life before you destroy that, too.​
 
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