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Has Trump outsmarted everybody?

Don Alaska

Don Alaska

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 10, 2025
Messages
185
I have seen several analysts comment on Trump's tariff moves as being perhaps the most brilliant economic moves ever. I must admit, I am no economist and I don't understand it all, but Trump is apparently deliberately temporarily trashing the stock market, It will force billions of dollars to move from stocks into Treasury bonds. That will push the interest rate down on American debt, lower the interest rate on credit card, car loans and mortgages. Apparently, the stock market only affects 20-25% of the American population, the other interest rates affect many more. It is also thumbing his nose at the Chinese, who dumped U.S. bonds trying to tank our banking system. As the interest rate on the bonds drop, the value goes up, so this move stabilizes U.S. banks (including the Federal Reserve) that are holding U.S. debt. While the media has been screaming all weekend about the stock market crash, Trump's approval rating in polls taken today is actually going up. The wealthy are the hardest hit, but the poorer folks and working-class people are positively impacted. Young people and nonwhites are moving more toward Trump. He apparently has stolen traditional Democrat voting blocs, and left the Left to defend the wealthiest of the population. Very interesting move. He seems to have the courage to bear the load of stock losses impacting many like Pelosi and Schumer for the long-term benefit of the U.S. economy. It also makes it cheaper for people to invest in the U.S.
 
This is pretty much what I am seeing people saying on X today as well. Many Americans are not invested in the stock market, but they would like to own a home, or buy an affordable car.
People who are farmers, fishermen, and automobile workers are elated that we are helping the economy. I see posts from people who are shrimpers and are so happy that their business is already getting better, and the car manufacturing should be picking up here along with steel mills opening up again, and the timber industry will boom if we build new houses because Trump is taking off some of the restrictions that were put on logging (spotted owl), and farming (smelt), so that they can now work again.

Other countries are already talking with Trump about reducing or eliminating tariffs. It seems to me that if the tariffs come off of the price of an item, that not only the US, but other countries will be paying less money to buy an item, making life more affordable.
Almost everything that we buy is made here in the United States anyway, or it comes second hand, like a vehicle; so a lot of people will not be noticing much difference with the tariffs.
There is a graph that shows the stock market ups and downs, and we are not really out of line with what was happening under Biden.

IMG_0334.jpeg
 
The Secretary of Agriculture said that over 50 nations are now in tariff negotiations. The fact that the MSM has been screaming about how bad the tariffs are and Trump's approval is still rising shows how much influence the media now have on the public. Chris Cuomo even admitted as much on a recent interview.
 
Even if markets drop it can provide opportunities.

One that I've been eyeing is doing 401k to Roth 401k conversions at lower values, reducing the tax impact. I'm not taking SS or RMDs yet and I get antsy about the impact of hitting an IRMAA threshold that would drive my Medicare premiums WAY up.
 
Yvonne Smith said:
This is pretty much what I am seeing people saying on X today as well. Many Americans are not invested in the stock market, but they would like to own a home, or buy an affordable car.
People who are farmers, fishermen, and automobile workers are elated that we are helping the economy. I see posts from people who are shrimpers and are so happy that their business is already getting better, and the car manufacturing should be picking up here along with steel mills opening up again, and the timber industry will boom if we build new houses because Trump is taking off some of the restrictions that were put on logging (spotted owl), and farming (smelt), so that they can now work again.

Other countries are already talking with Trump about reducing or eliminating tariffs. It seems to me that if the tariffs come off of the price of an item, that not only the US, but other countries will be paying less money to buy an item, making life more affordable.
Almost everything that we buy is made here in the United States anyway, or it comes second hand, like a vehicle; so a lot of people will not be noticing much difference with the tariffs.
There is a graph that shows the stock market ups and downs, and we are not really out of line with what was happening under Biden.

View attachment 382
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The Dow Jones has been dropping a lot lately. Not a great sign.
 
Many years ago, Forbes was on the J. Carson show and explained how a multitude of minor stock holders got wealthy shortly after the ‘29 crash.
To paraphrase the conversation, Forbes said that those who didn’t panic simply left their shares alone and if they could, they bought more shares and even diversified into other venues whilst the shares were at their lowest.

So all that said, whilst the stock market is going down, would it not facilitate the buying of shares by those who heretofore have not had a good opportunity to do so due to the higher prices per share?
 
I used to think that Eureka was the most expensive place I ever lived, and for good reason, it actually was. After moving to Edison, I miss Eureka's grocery stores, lower rents, etc. Not quite everything, but a lot of stuff is a good 40% more here, and prices have gone up even more since Trump took office and started "fixing the economy."

So no. He hasn't outsmarted everyone... Too many people see him for what he really is.
 
Nomad said:
Looks like everything is backfiring on Trump. Analysts are comparing the current situation to 1987's Black Monday. I do not understand The US economy but Trump increasing tariff and then other countries responding accordingly is sending a clear message of recession.
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Funny, because if anything the opposite seems to be the case.
 
Nomad said:
Looks like everything is backfiring on Trump. Analysts are comparing the current situation to 1987's Black Monday. I do not understand The US economy but Trump increasing tariff and then other countries responding accordingly is sending a clear message of recession.
Click to expand...
It may sound weird but over 50 countries are countering by dropping their tariffs for American made products.
Trump pretty much said that would happen and he will respond accordingly.
They lower their tariffs and we lower ours on their products.
 
I guess it's all in your perspective. I think this trade war is going to bite Trump on the butt, and it's not like he's all that popular now. Republicans lawmakers are kissing his ring in public, but are they plotting against him in private? We'll see...

Donald Trump's Approval Rating Slumps to Lowest Level in Multiple Polls

"Newsweek's average of the 10 most recently published polls shows that Trump's approval rating stands at 47 percent, while 50 percent disapprove. That is a reversal from early March, when Trump's approval rating was at 49 percent, while 47 percent disapproved."
 
The President of the European Commission is now talking tariff negotiations. It appears the "world's biggest market" has a good deal of influence when it chooses to apply it.
 
The SCOTUS has finally weighed in on deportations. It has ruled that the D.C. Circuit Court has no power to stop Trump or any other President from deporting illegal alien gang members under the law signed by John Adams to defend our nation. It is a major win for the Administration and may put the brakes on the judicial activism that has taken place.
 
Don Alaska said:
It has ruled that the D.C. Circuit Court has no power to stop Trump or any other President from deporting illegal alien gang members under the law signed by John Adams to defend our nation.
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That's great. That means all they have to do is prove beyond a reasonable doubt that whoever they want to deport are actually "illegal alien gang members." That shouldn't be too hard, IF it's actually true... And if they are in fact "illegal alien gang members", that is what should happen. But I find it hard to believe that the children that are being deported fit that description.
 
Perhaps we are catching this before we fall afoul of the plague of the UK today. People there are already predicting a Civil War on ethnic lines, if indeed it hasn't already begun. At the same time tax policy is driving money out of the country. As the pie shrinks things could heat up.
 
Axel Slingerland said:
That's great. That means all they have to do is prove beyond a reasonable doubt that whoever they want to deport are actually "illegal alien gang members." That shouldn't be too hard, IF it's actually true... And if they are in fact "illegal alien gang members", that is what should happen. But I find it hard to believe that the children that are being deported fit that description.
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There are at least two different kinds of deportation happening, and I think that this is why people are wondering about what is happening. Many people who came here just came across the border, or were helped across by the coyotes. Some of them were criminals in their own country and some were not, but ALL of them arrived here illegally, and need to leave. It they self-deport back to wherever they came from, then they cam come back with a green card like the people do who come here legally to work or go to college.

Most of the people who are gang members have criminal records both in their home country and here in the United States . Those people will either be shipped back to their own country or put in prison if they have charges here in the US.
Either way, they are probably going to end up in prison in some country. These people are often ones who were arrested for felony offenses, like rape and murder, but were released by the Biden administration rules. Now, ICE is finding and arresting them, and getting these criminals off of our streets, one way or another.

Also, ICE has made it plain that if people are sheltering a criminal that they arrest, anyone who is sheltering that criminal will be deported right along with the criminal, even if they have no criminal record. This is similar to how a person can be arrested for harboring a criminal , and family members can be arrested for doing that.

Some of the people that Biden allowed to just come across the border used an app that the Biden administration made to help them come across, and ICE has now revamped the app to make it a self-deportation app.
This gives illegals the chance to take their family, their belongings, and whatever money they have, and leave without being arrested, and gives them the option to come back legally; so many of the illegals are now doing that.
 
This seems appropriate for this thread...

Youth Soccer Coach Charged With Sexual Assault, Murder of Player Is in U.S. Illegally, Has Prior Victims​

Oscar Omar Hernandez, age 13, was allegedly killed by his soccer coach, Mario Edgardo Garcia Aquino on March 28; his body was found in a remote area in Oxnard, California, near soccer fields the team had played at, on April 2. A murder charge has been filed against Garcia Aquino with a special circumstance allegation that the murder was committed "during the commission or attempted commission of lewd acts with a child." The cause of death has not yet been revealed.

According to reporting from the Los Angeles Times, relying on multiple law enforcement sources, Garcia Aquino is an "undocumented immigrant from El Salvador."

redstate.com

Youth Soccer Coach Charged With Sexual Assault, Murder of Player Is in U.S. Illegally, Has Prior Victims

redstate.com redstate.com

There is much more on this at the link. The criminal alien has been here for years and the courts have played catch and release with him.

I wonder if Judge Boasberg will file another action against the Trump admin to keep this one in the country.
 
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