Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
I was just suggesting that you could be one of those "stealth stackers" I'm hearing about. They don't want anybody to know that they have a bag of gold in the fruit cellar. 
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Metals, a Hedge or Investment Depending on Your Views... or a Sucker's Bet?
- Thread starter Jacob Petersheim
- Start date
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
Well as far as I can tell gold really isn't a good investment. This year's steep rise is unusual, and it could still plunge back eventually to more normal levels.
The idea is to treat gold as a place to stash savings. Especially when faced with things like high inflation or worse yet currency and banking catastrophes. Plummeting interest rates are another problem, and savings in the bank can just get eaten away then due to rising prices.
Since stuffing "wealth" into gold and expecting to hold it there for 20 years or more is no longer even an option for many of us, that's off the table. Leaving it for kids and other relatives would be more of an accident rather than a strategy. If you had the money your kids might make better use of funds today rather than waiting for your passing when their own kids are already grown, etc.
So it can be more like a kind of savings account independent of the banking system. When you have a little to save, you buy. When it peaks and/or you need to pay for something then you sell.
The upshot being that you'd never have some huge stack of coins. More "save as you go, spend as you go."
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
Money Is a Scam (And It Started in 1971)
When Nixon "closed the gold window" everything changed.
Money itself is based on trust. Trust that you can accept "money" (in whatever form) for your goods or labor, and that others in society will accept that "money" in exchange for goods or labor that you want in return.
This was simpler before the advent of regionalism, then nationalism, and ultimately globalism. The latter led the British to establish the Gold Standard near its peak of Empire around 1812.
One of the things that made and kept the U.S. special was gold, through good times and the bad times - even including ever larger wars. The depression and 1933 broke this system, despite the U.S. gold reserves. Executive Order 6102 made ownership of gold all but illegal within the U.S. Congress codified this in 1934.
Near the end of WW II things changed once more. But by the 1960s globalism undermined the pillars of the U.S. economy. Out of concern foreign governments began to demand the gold, cashing in their paper Dollars.
As the U.S. gold reserve was depleted, Nixon "temporarily" suspended the convertibility of paper into gold in 1971. The inflation, then stagflation, of the 1970s followed. Political machinations by Israel's application of gold-backed influence lubricated by a rise in "dual citizenship" led to the 1973 oil embargo.
When Nixon "closed the gold window" everything changed.
Money itself is based on trust. Trust that you can accept "money" (in whatever form) for your goods or labor, and that others in society will accept that "money" in exchange for goods or labor that you want in return.
This was simpler before the advent of regionalism, then nationalism, and ultimately globalism. The latter led the British to establish the Gold Standard near its peak of Empire around 1812.
One of the things that made and kept the U.S. special was gold, through good times and the bad times - even including ever larger wars. The depression and 1933 broke this system, despite the U.S. gold reserves. Executive Order 6102 made ownership of gold all but illegal within the U.S. Congress codified this in 1934.
Near the end of WW II things changed once more. But by the 1960s globalism undermined the pillars of the U.S. economy. Out of concern foreign governments began to demand the gold, cashing in their paper Dollars.
As the U.S. gold reserve was depleted, Nixon "temporarily" suspended the convertibility of paper into gold in 1971. The inflation, then stagflation, of the 1970s followed. Political machinations by Israel's application of gold-backed influence lubricated by a rise in "dual citizenship" led to the 1973 oil embargo.
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
Whew. Gold's spot price has exceeded $4000/ounce for the first time. When I started looking, a few months back now, it was $3500.
It's getting a little scary. Silver remains high as well. Retail dealers and their wholesalers are beginning to report a growing scarcity of silver supply.
As far as I can tell, selling back to dealers is almost exclusively in the pawn shops and local coin shops in low-income areas. Customers are saying they don't want to let it go, but they need the money now.
Dealers in more well-heeled areas and some online dealers are reporting more 7- and 8-figure sales to customers than they have ever seen before. Who buys $10,000,000 of gold in one shot?
The rich are dumping the Dollar, probably liquidating their stocks and bonds to do so. Wall Street may be "up" but are only suckers left in the markets?
It's getting a little scary. Silver remains high as well. Retail dealers and their wholesalers are beginning to report a growing scarcity of silver supply.
As far as I can tell, selling back to dealers is almost exclusively in the pawn shops and local coin shops in low-income areas. Customers are saying they don't want to let it go, but they need the money now.
Dealers in more well-heeled areas and some online dealers are reporting more 7- and 8-figure sales to customers than they have ever seen before. Who buys $10,000,000 of gold in one shot?
The rich are dumping the Dollar, probably liquidating their stocks and bonds to do so. Wall Street may be "up" but are only suckers left in the markets?
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
So far both gold and silver keep going up with little pullback. Platinum and even palladium have been moving as well.
Prices are so tight now that even hyperfractional increments of gold have become a thing:
Prices are so tight now that even hyperfractional increments of gold have become a thing:
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
The price ratio between gold and silver in currencies (primarily the Dollar) has been floating around around from 85:1 to 80:1 in recent times. Some claim that a more "natural" ratio is 15:1 or even 10:1 and some even argue for 1:1.
I don't know about that. I'm not sure a tight ratio is even historically realistic. Silver is too useful as an industrial commodity to want its price too high, and its proclivity to tarnish and even corrode seems to place it in another category from gold.
Gold is also nearly twice as dense as silver. The one ounce .999 fine silver Eagle is a much larger coin than the .9167 fine gold Eagle and the .9999 fine gold Buffalo. The .9995 fine platinum Eagle is even smaller than that gold Buffalo, since platinum is denser still than gold.
Platinum doesn't seem to have ever been significant as a "monetary" metal. Perhaps it was just too rare and hard to work than gold, silver, and copper?
I don't know about that. I'm not sure a tight ratio is even historically realistic. Silver is too useful as an industrial commodity to want its price too high, and its proclivity to tarnish and even corrode seems to place it in another category from gold.
Gold is also nearly twice as dense as silver. The one ounce .999 fine silver Eagle is a much larger coin than the .9167 fine gold Eagle and the .9999 fine gold Buffalo. The .9995 fine platinum Eagle is even smaller than that gold Buffalo, since platinum is denser still than gold.
Platinum doesn't seem to have ever been significant as a "monetary" metal. Perhaps it was just too rare and hard to work than gold, silver, and copper?
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
Oh BTW...
That little Scottsdale Mint gold "bar" with the horse above? 1/100th of a Troy ounce is a hair under 1/3rd of a gram.
That little Scottsdale Mint gold "bar" with the horse above? 1/100th of a Troy ounce is a hair under 1/3rd of a gram.
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
Egad, another one:
3/8" in diameter, 0.01" thick!
3/8" in diameter, 0.01" thick!
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
Calm and sober look at the issues:
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
Things are getting weird for metals.
Silver refiners are now not accepting silver scrap, 90% and 40% silver, or random generic rounds and small bars. They are too far behind at a time when demand has dramatically risen from COMEX, London banks, and India. So processing the raw input needs to run fast.
My guess is the generic .999 stuff has too high a counterfeit rate and it slow refining to stop and rake out the steel cores from the fakes.
Prices seem like to keep rising, but retail premiums for all metals are rising too.
So if you planned to get on the train... it may be leaving the station. My guess is that local coin shops might offer a steal on 90% junk silver coins, since they can't otherwise dispose of them if refiners and wholesalers have turned up their noses.
Government-issued bullion is still being accepted, but premiums (markups) have already started their rise on those.
Silver refiners are now not accepting silver scrap, 90% and 40% silver, or random generic rounds and small bars. They are too far behind at a time when demand has dramatically risen from COMEX, London banks, and India. So processing the raw input needs to run fast.
My guess is the generic .999 stuff has too high a counterfeit rate and it slow refining to stop and rake out the steel cores from the fakes.
Prices seem like to keep rising, but retail premiums for all metals are rising too.
So if you planned to get on the train... it may be leaving the station. My guess is that local coin shops might offer a steal on 90% junk silver coins, since they can't otherwise dispose of them if refiners and wholesalers have turned up their noses.
Government-issued bullion is still being accepted, but premiums (markups) have already started their rise on those.
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
It sounds like the Dollar's fortunes may have flipped. Those who bet against it might be in trouble when stocks, crypto, and gold all crash.
The story seems to be that as "weak" as the Dollar might be, pretty much every other currency is in far worse shape.
The story seems to be that as "weak" as the Dollar might be, pretty much every other currency is in far worse shape.
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) cartel got itself in trouble. It appears that silver dumping depleted their physical holdings to a point where they can't meet demand of those holding its "paper silver" who are now standing for delivery of the physical asset.
Refiners appear to be working very hard to produce the large silver bars that such repositories hold. One clear sign that this is a bit of a panic is that the silver, which normally travels by sea, is now being flown in to London.
Much of this is about contract terms that specify the amount of delay between request and delivery. Something has been up for a while, because earlier in the Summer there were claims that delays were due to a shortage of trucks!
From the outside as a common person it is easy to discount all of this precious metals drama as something fanciful, an entertainment for the masses. After all, silver and gold just aren't something most of us deal with in real life. It sounds very archaic, like something romanticized and belonging to a distant era of sailing ships and pirates.
Refiners appear to be working very hard to produce the large silver bars that such repositories hold. One clear sign that this is a bit of a panic is that the silver, which normally travels by sea, is now being flown in to London.
Much of this is about contract terms that specify the amount of delay between request and delivery. Something has been up for a while, because earlier in the Summer there were claims that delays were due to a shortage of trucks!
From the outside as a common person it is easy to discount all of this precious metals drama as something fanciful, an entertainment for the masses. After all, silver and gold just aren't something most of us deal with in real life. It sounds very archaic, like something romanticized and belonging to a distant era of sailing ships and pirates.
Don Alaska
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2025
- Messages
- 809
Paper silver and gold are always to be questioned. It is done to make it quickly convertible in large quantities by central banks and large holders. Fro smal owners of precious metals, it is not the best things as the "Big Guys" will always be paid first and the is never enough metal to cover all the paper issued.
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
Never having peered into the precious metals culture before, I'm finding that it is rife with rumor and speculation. No surprise, people are always going to be people. 
What I didn't expect is how it differs from other corners of collector culture, in that quite a few of its points are rooted in a part of the real world I had only very low-level awareness of. In particular things like currencies and the interlocking of parties via "settlements systems." The latter being something at the consumer level like how a check you write is processed when cashed by the recipient.
Now I'm hearing how some States in the U.S. (Florida for one but there are others) accept payment for debts (e.g. property taxes) in gold and/or silver. Costco has been selling gold and silver to its customers ("members") for some time now and has even had issues when stock ran out.
So "metals" seem to be more pervasive at very different levels of the economy than I ever realized.
It is becoming more easy to believe that next July will see the announcement of a U.S. monetary reset, once more pegging the Dollar to gold and silver in some fashion. Tied into the 250th Anniversary date for effect.
What any of this means for us peons isn't clear to me at all. I find the newly-casual use of the phrase "debasement trade" a little bit scary though.
It gets even scarier when you look into the plans elsewhere in the world.
What I didn't expect is how it differs from other corners of collector culture, in that quite a few of its points are rooted in a part of the real world I had only very low-level awareness of. In particular things like currencies and the interlocking of parties via "settlements systems." The latter being something at the consumer level like how a check you write is processed when cashed by the recipient.
Now I'm hearing how some States in the U.S. (Florida for one but there are others) accept payment for debts (e.g. property taxes) in gold and/or silver. Costco has been selling gold and silver to its customers ("members") for some time now and has even had issues when stock ran out.
So "metals" seem to be more pervasive at very different levels of the economy than I ever realized.
It is becoming more easy to believe that next July will see the announcement of a U.S. monetary reset, once more pegging the Dollar to gold and silver in some fashion. Tied into the 250th Anniversary date for effect.
What any of this means for us peons isn't clear to me at all. I find the newly-casual use of the phrase "debasement trade" a little bit scary though.
It gets even scarier when you look into the plans elsewhere in the world.
Don Alaska
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2025
- Messages
- 809
repegging gold could mean that we could pay off te national debt with it if we have the reserves we claim to have. Whether those reserves exist or not has been a matter for speculation however.Never having peered into the precious metals culture before, I'm finding that it is rife with rumor and speculation. No surprise, people are always going to be people.
What I didn't expect is how it differs from other corners of collector culture, in that quite a few of its points are rooted in a part of the real world I had only very low-level awareness of. In particular things like currencies and the interlocking of parties via "settlements systems." The latter being something at the consumer level like how a check you write is processed when cashed by the recipient.
Now I'm hearing how some States in the U.S. (Florida for one but there are others) accept payment for debts (e.g. property taxes) in gold and/or silver. Costco has been selling gold and silver to its customers ("members") for some time now and has even had issues when stock ran out.
So "metals" seem to be more pervasive at very different levels of the economy than I ever realized.
It is becoming more easy to believe that next July will see the announcement of a U.S. monetary reset, once more pegging the Dollar to gold and silver in some fashion. Tied into the 250th Anniversary date for effect.
What any of this means for us peons isn't clear to me at all. I find the newly-casual use of the phrase "debasement trade" a little bit scary though.
It gets even scarier when you look into the plans elsewhere in the world.
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
I've heard the suggestion that they have the gold, but it isn't in any shape for a public audit.
Supposedly it is scattered pretty widely and not just held inside Fort Knox and West Point as often described. It could be piles of old reserve bars, mint stock blanks and scrap, and the raw confiscated pre-1933 90% gold coins still in the bank sacks.
Supposedly it is scattered pretty widely and not just held inside Fort Knox and West Point as often described. It could be piles of old reserve bars, mint stock blanks and scrap, and the raw confiscated pre-1933 90% gold coins still in the bank sacks.
Don Alaska
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2025
- Messages
- 809
No idea where it could be. I think the New York Federal Reserve Bank has a large stash as well.
Jacob Petersheim
Well-known member
I'm seeing an awful lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth among the silver stackers now.
Refiners stopped accepting more junk silver coins, scrap silver (sterling, jewelry), and even .999 fine rounds and bars. Domestic and some foreign sovereign coins are still trading - probably because they are quicker to verify and mostly in "market ready" condition, so easier to turn around to wholesalers.
But this means dealers can't unload more of those low-end products, which in turn means buyback rates are low or buyback is even being turned away.
Gold trading remans strong, aside from a shift to dealers using futures pricing instead of spot since the two prices inverted when spot exceeded futures. Some sell based on the higher price, buyback only on the lower price.
From what those who have been in this for a while and went through other price rises say... this is different and not market behavior they have ever seen before.
Refiners stopped accepting more junk silver coins, scrap silver (sterling, jewelry), and even .999 fine rounds and bars. Domestic and some foreign sovereign coins are still trading - probably because they are quicker to verify and mostly in "market ready" condition, so easier to turn around to wholesalers.
But this means dealers can't unload more of those low-end products, which in turn means buyback rates are low or buyback is even being turned away.
Gold trading remans strong, aside from a shift to dealers using futures pricing instead of spot since the two prices inverted when spot exceeded futures. Some sell based on the higher price, buyback only on the lower price.
From what those who have been in this for a while and went through other price rises say... this is different and not market behavior they have ever seen before.